Russia’s Tactic Toward the West: Gradual Escalation, Testing Reactions

Russia’s Gradual Escalation Strategy Against the West

Growing Boldness Amid Weak Pushback

Ukrainian and European officials argue that Vladimir Putin has grown more confident due to limited Western responses. Over the past three weeks, Russian forces have targeted increasingly sensitive sites — from a U.S.-owned factory in western Ukraine to European diplomatic offices in Kyiv, and most recently, Polish airspace.

Drones Crossing Into NATO Territory

Early Wednesday, Russian drones penetrated Polish airspace, forcing NATO warplanes to intercept them. It marked the first direct engagement between alliance forces and Russian weaponry since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Despite this, earlier Russian strikes on Western-linked facilities triggered little more than strong statements from officials. Ukraine’s foreign minister Andrii Sybiha said the attacks underscored Putin’s “growing sense of impunity.”

Escalation by Inches

Analysts note that Moscow avoids sudden, large-scale escalations. Instead, it employs a step-by-step approach — testing Western reactions while maintaining plausible deniability. Recent examples include missiles that struck near European diplomatic compounds, a blaze at Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers building, and drone flights over NATO borders. Each act carries symbolic weight, signaling that Western assets remain vulnerable.

Western Responses and Limits

The United States, Britain, and France have slowly crossed their own red lines, supplying Ukraine with long-range weapons initially restricted from use on Russian territory. Over time, limited strikes inside Russia were permitted, eroding Moscow’s early objections. Still, officials fear that any Western troops deployed to Ukraine in the future could become direct targets.

Moscow’s Use of Deception

Russia has a long history of employing misdirection and denial. From the “little green men” in Crimea in 2014 to covert operations in Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan, and Syria, unmarked soldiers and false narratives have been consistent tools. After the drones crossed into Poland, Russian diplomats even claimed they had originated from Ukraine, echoing Cold War–era denials.

Strategic Advantage Through Ambiguity

According to Ukrainian officials, Moscow may be using an “escalate to de-escalate” approach — pushing boundaries to later offer concessions. By creating alarm and then presenting reassurances, the Kremlin could strengthen its hand in future negotiations.

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski dismissed Moscow’s explanations as typical “lies and denials,” emphasizing that such tactics are embedded in Russia’s playbook