Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal and Palantir, is a leading figure in Silicon Valley and one of the few outspoken conservative intellectuals in tech. In a recent discussion with Ross Douthat on “Interesting Times,” Thiel elaborates on his views around stagnation, technological progress, the role of politics, and the future of humanity.
Thiel reaffirms his belief that Western society has entered a phase of technological stagnation. While acknowledging progress in digital realms such as AI and crypto, he contrasts it with the high-velocity advancements from 1750 to 1970. “We’re not completely stuck, but the speed of innovation has slowed dramatically,” he argues.
Determining stagnation is difficult, Thiel says, because of hyperspecialization in modern academia and research. Progress in string theory, cancer treatment, or quantum computing is hard to quantify, making public perception increasingly skeptical.
Thiel uses the visual continuity of cityscapes from 1985 to 2025 to highlight stagnation. Unlike the transformative changes between 1890 and 1970, today’s environment feels familiar and unchanged. This, he says, supports the common-sense intuition that we’re not advancing rapidly.
Discussing Western fears around growth—environmental, nuclear, or otherwise—Thiel contends that avoiding growth results in societal unraveling. “The middle class is defined by the expectation that children will do better than their parents,” he notes. Without growth, that expectation collapses.
Thiel believes we need to accept more risk to escape decadence, particularly in medicine and science. Citing the stagnation in Alzheimer’s research, he advocates for more aggressive experimentation and regulatory flexibility.
Thiel explains his political alignment with Trump as an attempt to challenge the dominant stagnation. While he admits disappointment in what was actually achieved, he appreciates that the conversation about American decline is now mainstream.
Many in tech, including Elon Musk and other former liberals, have shifted ideologically, according to Thiel. Repeated failures in progressive policies have led some to explore alternatives, not out of loyalty to Trump but as a reaction to dysfunction.
Despite his influence, Thiel expresses ambivalence about political engagement. He calls politics “toxic” and a “zero-sum game,” and recalls conversations with Musk about the impossibility of escaping governmental overreach, even on Mars.
Thiel places AI on par with the internet of the late 1990s: significant, but not society-transforming. While he acknowledges its potential, he laments that it’s the only area showing promise today.
He critiques the belief that intelligence alone can solve our problems, noting societal and cultural constraints. “Maybe it’s not IQ but conformity that’s the issue,” he says, implying that smart individuals within rigid institutions are unlikely to innovate.
There is a danger, Thiel warns, that AI could reinforce conformity and create “infinite OK ideas,” deepening societal stagnation rather than solving it. However, he still considers AI better than “nothing happening at all.”
Thiel discusses the limitations of current transhumanist ambitions, calling them “pathetically little.” He contrasts this with Christian visions of full spiritual and physical transformation, suggesting that future progress must be as much about the soul as the body.
Peter Thiel remains a paradoxical figure—pessimistic about present stagnation but hopeful about the possibility of disruptive change. Whether through AI, politics, or radical science, he insists that bold risk-taking is essential to avoid a permanently stalled civilization.
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