China’s Population Growth Crisis Deepens as Birthrate Hits 1949-Era Low

China’s Population Decline Deepens Despite Aggressive Birth Push

China’s population has shrunk for the fourth consecutive year, as the country’s birthrate fell to its lowest level since 1949. Despite increasingly forceful efforts by the government to encourage childbirth, the demographic crisis continues to worsen.

In 2025, China recorded more deaths than births once again, leaving the nation smaller, older and facing mounting long-term economic challenges.

Record-Low Births and Rising Deaths

Official data released Monday showed that 7.92 million babies were born last year, a sharp decline from 9.54 million in 2024. Meanwhile, deaths climbed to 11.31 million, continuing a steady upward trend.

The birthrate dropped to 5.63 births per 1,000 people — the lowest figure since the founding of the People’s Republic of China. These population figures were published alongside economic data showing that China’s economy grew 5% in 2025.

While falling birthrates are a global issue, China’s situation is particularly severe because a shrinking workforce must support a rapidly expanding elderly population.

Government Pressure Fails to Change Behavior

Over the past several years, Chinese authorities have tried a wide range of measures to reverse the trend. Officials have framed childbirth as a patriotic duty, encouraged traditional family values and urged young people to rethink marriage and parenthood.

Local governments have gone further, introducing controversial steps such as monitoring women’s reproductive health, tightening abortion guidelines and offering cash incentives or housing subsidies for couples. Despite these efforts, young people have largely remained unmoved.

“China is facing an extremely serious fertility challenge,” said Wu Fan, a professor of family policy at Nankai University. He noted that China may have already crossed a demographic point of no return, making population decline difficult — if not impossible — to reverse.

Tax on Contraceptives Sparks Backlash

At the start of the year, authorities imposed a 13% value-added tax on contraceptives, including condoms. While officials did not directly link the move to population policy, many citizens interpreted it as another attempt to discourage birth control.

The response online ranged from sarcasm to outright criticism. Many users joked that condoms were still far cheaper than raising a child, while others pointed out their role in disease prevention.

A young Beijing resident said the price hike would not affect his decisions about family planning, citing financial stress and job uncertainty as the real reasons for delaying marriage and children.

Economic Pressures Weigh on Young Families

Experts say economic realities play a far bigger role than policy nudges. Housing costs remain high, youth unemployment is elevated and many recent graduates struggle to find stable jobs. Combined with a weak social welfare system, these factors discourage young adults from starting families.

“Financial incentives have very limited impact on fertility,” said Wang Feng, a sociology professor at the University of California, Irvine. “In times of economic uncertainty, people tend to postpone or abandon plans for marriage and children.”

Aging Population and Pension Strain

China’s demographic challenges are compounded by a rapidly aging population. The number of citizens aged 60 and older is expected to reach 400 million by 2035, placing enormous pressure on pension and healthcare systems that are already underfunded.

Although the government recently raised the retirement age for the first time in decades, it remains low by global standards. Many young workers are reluctant to contribute to pension funds they fear may not support them in the future.

Fewer Young People Want to Marry

Matchmakers across major cities are also seeing a shift. Jia Dan, a Beijing-based event organizer who has hosted matchmaking gatherings for more than a decade, says interest in marriage has clearly declined.

“The pool of people who genuinely want to get married is getting smaller,” he said. “You can feel that young people are choosing independence over traditional family life.”

Women, in particular, are less likely to return to matchmaking events, he added — a sign of changing social attitudes that government policies have struggled to address.

A Demographic Challenge With No Easy Fix

Despite repeated policy changes — including loosening the one-child policy to allow two children and later three — China now faces a demographic problem it underestimated just a decade ago.

With fewer births, rising deaths and shifting cultural norms, the country’s population decline appears increasingly difficult to reverse, leaving policymakers with limited options and growing urgency.